Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4184 at 12:35, 16%.

Safest bet today WN 4184 TPA 12:35 → MSY 13:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4038 TPA 17:10 → MSY 17:45 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4184 Southwest	TPA 12:35	MSY 13:30	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4376 Southwest	TPA 17:55	MSY 18:40	37%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4038 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 17:10	MSY 17:45	39%	6%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON