Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2804 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2804 TPA 07:50 → ORD 10:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2768 TPA 18:30 → ORD 21:01 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2804 United Flight history →	TPA 07:50	ORD 10:00	8%	5%	0.8%	97%
AA 354 American Flight history →	TPA 06:44	ORD 08:49	8%	3%	1.3%	92%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	TPA 07:27	ORD 09:26	11%	5%	0.8%	85%
UA 2223 United Flight history →	TPA 12:30	ORD 14:40	16%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	TPA 13:49	ORD 15:59	23%	9%	1.0%	67%
UA 2801 United Flight history →	TPA 19:42	ORD 21:53	25%	10%	1.2%	64%
AA 2920 American Flight history →	TPA 13:58	ORD 15:57	27%	8%	1.0%	74%
UA 1010 United Flight history →	TPA 16:30	ORD 18:40	34%	12%	0.8%	61%
AA 2768 American Flight history →	TPA 18:30	ORD 21:01	37%	12%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON