Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1806 at 06:01, 5%.

Safest bet today AA 1806 TPA 06:01 → PHL 08:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 4808 TPA 16:40 → PHL 19:26 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1806 American Flight history →	TPA 06:01	PHL 08:39	5%	2%	0.7%	97%
AA 2807 American Flight history →	TPA 06:55	PHL 09:34	9%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 2285 American	TPA 10:51	PHL 13:29	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 2538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 09:42	PHL 12:28	26%	10%	2.2%	68%
AA 1981 American	TPA 12:49	PHL 15:37	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2822 American Flight history →	TPA 12:33	PHL 15:17	31%	8%	0.7%	76%
F9 2836 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 22:30	PHL 01:09	33%	14%	1.9%	82%worse than usual
AA 2049 American Flight history →	TPA 14:52	PHL 17:35	36%	14%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AA 2257 American	TPA 15:56	PHL 18:37	37%	14%	0.7%	no record
AA 2838 American Flight history →	TPA 16:29	PHL 19:14	39%	12%	0.9%	55%
AA 2900 American Flight history →	TPA 17:56	PHL 20:40	41%	13%	1.2%	49%
AA 2055 American	TPA 18:18	PHL 20:56	42%	14%	1.3%	no record
F9 4808 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 16:40	PHL 19:26	46%	14%	1.2%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON