Today: WN 3556 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–25%.

Safest bet today WN 3556 TPA 08:39 → RDU 09:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1275 TPA 20:59 → RDU 22:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3556 Southwest	TPA 08:39	RDU 09:56	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4605 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:15	RDU 12:05	8%	1%	0.2%	79%
DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	TPA 09:11	RDU 11:04	8%	2%	0.4%	91%
F9 2730 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 13:57	RDU 16:09	23%	9%	1.0%	84%
DL 1275 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:59	RDU 22:55	25%	8%	0.9%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON