Today: DL 1090 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–41%.

Safest bet today DL 1090 TPA 07:16 → SEA 10:10 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 326 TPA 18:54 → SEA 21:59 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1090 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:16	SEA 10:10	24%	4%	0.3%	88%worse than usual
AS 640 Alaska Flight history →	TPA 07:08	SEA 10:13	26%	4%	0.7%	73%
AS 326 Alaska Flight history →	TPA 18:54	SEA 21:59	41%	9%	0.8%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 15m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → MSP 17:38DL 2696	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	8h 30m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	8h 35m	89%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON