Today: UA 1712 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–32%.

Safest bet today UA 1712 TPA 06:55 → SFO 09:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1957 TPA 15:26 → SFO 18:16 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1712 United	TPA 06:55	SFO 09:35	10%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 611 United Flight history →	TPA 06:42	SFO 09:18	10%	2%	0.2%	92%
UA 1957 United	TPA 15:26	SFO 18:16	32%	7%	0.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048	1h 20m St Louis	STL 08:30 → SFO 10:49WN 4931	7h 59m	96%	82%
United Details →	TPA 08:00 → DEN 10:02UA 2167	1h 19m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 04m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:45 → SLC 09:13DL 1977	1h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	8h 18m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON