Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:55 am at Tampa); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 12:31, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 36% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 12:31 → MSP 14:53DL 2301	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	9h 36m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 04m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:11 → JFK 13:48DL 2042	2h 39m New York	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	10h 44m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → MSP 17:38DL 2696	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051	8h 55m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587	3h 32m Detroit	DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15DL 2117	10h 15m	96%	75%
United Details →	TPA 12:20 → DEN 14:09UA 683	2h 20m Denver	DEN 16:29 → SLC 18:10UA 5261 · flown by SkyWest	7h 50m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:34 → ATL 14:10DL 1587	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	9h 22m	97%	74%
Frontier Details →	TPA 12:12 → DFW 14:11F9 1333	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → SLC 18:07F9 3277	7h 55m	92%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 16:32 → ATL 18:23DL 1167	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660	7h 05m	59%	43%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	6h 38m	50%	38%
American Details →	TPA 19:28 → DFW 21:17AA 2512	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:05 → SLC 00:01 +1AA 2507	6h 33m	36%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON