Today: DL 1259 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet today DL 1259 TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1186 TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1259 Delta Flight history →	TUL 06:00	ATL 09:04	7%	3%	1.0%	93%
DL 2754 Delta Flight history →	TUL 10:04	ATL 13:05	11%	4%	1.1%	94%
DL 2620 Delta Flight history →	TUL 12:41	ATL 15:45	15%	3%	0.9%	84%
DL 2837 Delta Flight history →	TUL 18:49	ATL 22:00	16%	4%	0.8%	75%
DL 1186 Delta Flight history →	TUL 16:48	ATL 19:55	18%	3%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON