Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4051 TUL 07:40 → BNA 09:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 590 TUL 16:40 → BNA 18:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4051 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 07:40	BNA 09:20	9%	2%	0.1%	95%
WN 2837 Southwest	TUL 07:50	BNA 09:31	10%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 2374 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 16:20	BNA 17:55	14%	3%	0.5%	68%
WN 590 Southwest	TUL 16:40	BNA 18:22	18%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON