Today: WN 381 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet today WN 381 TUL 05:41 → DAL 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4054 TUL 18:40 → DAL 19:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 381 Southwest	TUL 05:41	DAL 06:55	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4814 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 05:35	DAL 06:40	4%	1%	0.4%	91%
WN 4053 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 10:10	DAL 11:15	13%	2%	0.4%	84%
WN 3009 Southwest	TUL 12:21	DAL 13:35	13%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2613 Southwest	TUL 18:05	DAL 19:18	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4054 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 18:40	DAL 19:45	18%	4%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON