Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1676 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1676 TUL 06:00 → DEN 06:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest OO 5673 TUL 19:04 → DEN 19:56 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1676 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 06:00	DEN 06:50	6%	1%	0.1%	97%
WN 2242 Southwest	TUL 06:06	DEN 06:54	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 690 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 10:20	DEN 11:00	7%	1%	0.5%	77%
UA 5667 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 06:00	DEN 07:00	9%	3%	0.2%	94%
WN 2639 Southwest	TUL 13:45	DEN 14:32	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1435 United	TUL 08:57	DEN 10:11	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 5276 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 11:44	DEN 12:44	11%	4%	0.6%	85%
WN 4204 Southwest	TUL 19:15	DEN 20:10	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1029 United Flight history →	TUL 09:22	DEN 10:10	14%	3%	0.7%	76%
WN 4333 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 18:40	DEN 19:30	16%	3%	0.5%	41%
UA 6032 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 19:05	DEN 20:22	20%	4%	0.7%	72%
UA 5914 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 17:10	DEN 18:10	24%	4%	0.6%	67%
OO 5673 SkyWest	TUL 19:04	DEN 19:56	25%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON