Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3988 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3988 TUL 05:00 → DFW 06:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2889 TUL 20:26 → DFW 21:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3988 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 05:00	DFW 06:17	9%	3%	0.9%	89%
MQ 3821 Envoy	TUL 04:55	DFW 06:14	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 867 American Flight history →	TUL 06:01	DFW 07:25	14%	4%	3.2%	89%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 12:49	DFW 14:13	16%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 4133 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 18:33	DFW 19:58	16%	3%	0.8%	75%
AA 1090 American Flight history →	TUL 05:58	DFW 07:14	17%	4%	2.7%	91%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	TUL 10:44	DFW 12:07	24%	6%	1.9%	80%
AA 3095 American Flight history →	TUL 07:47	DFW 09:12	24%	5%	3.2%	75%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	TUL 13:03	DFW 14:28	25%	6%	1.9%	83%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	TUL 10:54	DFW 12:16	25%	6%	1.9%	70%
AA 5420 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TUL 15:49	DFW 17:13	33%	9%	0.8%	66%
AA 2889 American Flight history →	TUL 20:26	DFW 21:49	33%	6%	1.8%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON