Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4438 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4438 TUL 06:40 → LAS 07:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 90 TUL 17:57 → LAS 18:46 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4438 Southwest	TUL 06:40	LAS 07:37	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2720 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 07:20	LAS 08:05	9%	2%	0.1%	96%
WN 4056 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 20:35	LAS 21:30	13%	4%	0.5%	50%
WN 294 Southwest	TUL 19:45	LAS 20:42	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
G4 45 Allegiant	TUL 12:16	LAS 13:13	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
G4 90 Allegiant Flight history →	TUL 17:57	LAS 18:46	23%	8%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON