tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6366 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUL 15:21 LAX 16:55 9% 3% 0.5% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 7h 34m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 8h 30m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 9h 05m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:00 → MDW 06:45WN 4057 3h 05m Chicago MDW 09:50 → LAX 12:07WN 1908 9h 07m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:22 → DEN 10:10UA 1029 1h 35m Denver DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 5h 55m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 8h 13m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:50 → ORD 12:00UA 5717 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Chicago ORD 14:30 → LAX 17:05UA 374 9h 15m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 49m Chicago ORD 10:37 → LAX 13:13AA 1979 8h 38m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 18:20 → ORD 20:30UA 4483 · flown by GoJet 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661 7h 49m 71% 56%
AmericanDetails → TUL 10:54 → DFW 12:16AA 2851 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:11 → LAX 14:20AA 3334 5h 26m 74% 50%
AmericanDetails → TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → LAX 19:45AA 2766 5h 56m 70% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON