tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:33 pm at Tulsa); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 18:02, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → TUL 18:02 → PHX 18:40AA 3826 · flown by Envoy 3h 20m Phoenix PHX 22:00 → MIA 05:22 +1AA 2205 10h 20m 99% 66%
DeltaDetails → TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 5h 51m 88% 59%
AmericanDetails → TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:20 → MIA 00:11 +1AA 2090 7h 22m 91% 55%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 16:20 → BNA 17:55WN 2374 1h 45m Nashville BNA 19:40 → MIA 23:00WN 4779 5h 40m 91% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 15:43 → IAH 17:24UA 5301 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Houston IAH 18:30 → MIA 22:03UA 1829 5h 20m 69% 43%
AmericanDetails → TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:10 → MIA 22:05AA 2206 5h 16m 62% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON