Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today YX 4544 TUL 19:34 → ORD 21:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4393 TUL 18:15 → ORD 20:12 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4544 Republic	TUL 19:34	ORD 21:36	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
YX 4729 Republic	TUL 17:47	ORD 19:49	10%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 3827 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 19:49	ORD 22:00	11%	2%	0.5%	74%
G7 4421 GoJet	TUL 14:40	ORD 16:47	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 4795 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 14:17	ORD 16:28	16%	5%	0.4%	69%
G7 4393 GoJet	TUL 18:15	ORD 20:12	17%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON