Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:57 am at Tulsa)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 09:22, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 2220 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 18:09	SEA 20:17	27%	10%	0.0%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TUL 08:48 → PHX 09:25AA 3434 · flown by Envoy	2h 07m Phoenix	PHX 11:32 → SEA 14:46AA 3440 · flown by Envoy	7h 58m	100%	82%
United Details →	TUL 14:17 → ORD 16:28UA 4795 · flown by SkyWest	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 20:05 → SEA 22:56UA 2820	10h 39m	100%	80%
United Details →	TUL 09:50 → ORD 12:00UA 5717 · flown by SkyWest	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660	8h 19m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	9h 11m	93%	73%
United Details →	TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Denver	DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013	8h 15m	98%	73%
United Details →	TUL 09:22 → DEN 10:10UA 1029	3h 50m Denver	DEN 14:00 → SEA 16:00UA 2164	8h 38m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	8h 35m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	8h 45m	97%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TUL 13:41 → IAH 15:29UA 5637 · flown by SkyWest	56m Houston	IAH 16:25 → SEA 19:12UA 2638	7h 31m	67%	42%
American Details →	TUL 20:26 → DFW 21:49AA 2889	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	6h 31m	60%	36%
Alaska Details →	TUL 15:07 → SAN 16:15AS 2320 · flown by Horizon	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 17:20 → SEA 20:07AS 692	7h 00m	57%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON