tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:01 am at Tulsa)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 4006 at 08:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4006 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUL 08:00 SLC 09:55 8% 3% 0.1% 90%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TUL 10:20 → DEN 11:00WN 690 3h 20m Denver DEN 14:20 → SLC 15:52WN 2330 6h 32m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:22 → DEN 10:10UA 1029 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840 6h 51m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:35 → PHX 07:05WN 4287 3h 18m Phoenix PHX 10:23 → SLC 13:03WN 4913 7h 28m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 17m Chicago ORD 10:05 → SLC 12:35AA 2616 7h 00m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa 3h 38m Houston IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 8h 40m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Denver DEN 16:29 → SLC 18:10UA 5261 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 99% 78%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 07:40 → BNA 09:20WN 4051 3h 50m Nashville BNA 13:10 → SLC 15:38WN 4634 8h 58m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 8h 14m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 20:26 → DFW 21:49AA 2889 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378 5h 10m 66% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON