Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:58 am at Tucson)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 886 Delta Flight history →	TUS 06:00	ATL 12:38	4%	2%	0.3%	97%
DL 937 Delta Flight history →	TUS 13:49	ATL 20:45	14%	3%	0.2%	87%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUS 16:31 → SLC 19:29DL 3737 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:33 → ATL 04:21 +1DL 8806	8h 50m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	TUS 12:30 → LAX 14:15DL 3744 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 16:40 → ATL 00:30 +1DL 471	9h 00m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	9h 17m	100%	84%
American Details →	TUS 05:45 → PHX 06:36AA 2622	2h 11m Phoenix	PHX 08:47 → ATL 15:42AA 883	6h 57m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	9h 42m	98%	83%
United Details →	TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa	3h 27m Houston	IAH 14:40 → ATL 17:54UA 1211	8h 17m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 12:00 → ATL 19:39DL 446	10h 19m	98%	81%
United Details →	TUS 05:45 → DEN 08:38UA 2418	1h 30m Denver	DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:17UA 2806	6h 32m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	TUS 15:15 → DEN 18:15WN 1599	50m Denver	DEN 19:05 → ATL 00:12 +1WN 2450	5h 57m	69%	50%
American Details →	TUS 07:04 → DFW 11:31AA 2555	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:19 → ATL 15:33AA 1008	5h 29m	64%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON