Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 21–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2089 TUS 13:37 → DEN 16:56 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6083 TUS 15:07 → DEN 18:17 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2089 United	TUS 13:37	DEN 16:56	21%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 2671 United Flight history →	TUS 13:30	DEN 16:39	21%	6%	0.2%	81%
WN 4249 Southwest	TUS 15:00	DEN 18:06	28%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 3697 Southwest	TUS 12:14	DEN 14:46	28%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 1599 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 15:15	DEN 18:15	31%	5%	0.1%	39%
OO 6083 SkyWest	TUS 15:07	DEN 18:17	31%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON