Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2193 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2193 TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 584 TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2193 American Flight history →	TUS 05:01	DFW 09:27	10%	4%	3.6%	93%
AA 1025 American Flight history →	TUS 07:00	DFW 11:24	13%	4%	2.7%	90%
AA 2555 American Flight history →	TUS 07:04	DFW 11:31	16%	5%	2.7%	96%worse than usual
AA 1011 American	TUS 07:57	DFW 12:19	16%	5%	3.6%	no record
AA 2586 American	TUS 11:57	DFW 16:19	22%	6%	3.6%	no record
AA 1014 American Flight history →	TUS 09:30	DFW 13:52	23%	6%	2.3%	80%
AA 2926 American Flight history →	TUS 13:18	DFW 17:50	28%	7%	2.6%	72%
AA 584 American Flight history →	TUS 15:57	DFW 20:29	33%	9%	2.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON