Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 2279 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet today WN 2279 TUS 05:10 → LAS 06:41 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1195 TUS 20:00 → LAS 21:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2279 Southwest	TUS 05:10	LAS 06:41	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 860 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 06:45	LAS 08:00	5%	2%	0.4%	100%
WN 3496 Southwest	TUS 09:10	LAS 10:41	11%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 1097 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 10:45	LAS 12:05	16%	5%	0.2%	88%
WN 1821 Southwest	TUS 18:05	LAS 19:31	23%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 4212 Southwest	TUS 20:04	LAS 21:30	26%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 1195 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 20:00	LAS 21:25	28%	9%	0.5%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON