Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 6393 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 6393 TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4060 TUS 19:00 → LAX 20:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6393 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:02	LAX 07:46	6%	3%	0.2%	88%
DL 3502 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:20	LAX 08:00	7%	3%	0.2%	94%
OO 6291 SkyWest	TUS 07:12	LAX 09:07	9%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 1817 Southwest	TUS 09:40	LAX 11:22	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3744 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 12:30	LAX 14:15	15%	6%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
OO 6202 SkyWest	TUS 12:05	LAX 13:46	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3904 SkyWest	TUS 12:27	LAX 14:10	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 12:34	LAX 14:15	17%	6%	0.6%	83%
DL 3778 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 16:47	LAX 18:31	18%	6%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
OO 3906 SkyWest	TUS 16:42	LAX 18:25	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 6426 SkyWest	TUS 18:54	LAX 20:44	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 6372 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 17:43	LAX 19:25	21%	7%	0.6%	76%
WN 4060 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 19:00	LAX 20:35	26%	6%	0.6%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON