Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:28 am at Tucson); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2867 American Flight history →	TUS 12:35	ORD 18:29	29%	7%	0.3%	73%
AA 2537 American Flight history →	TUS 14:22	ORD 19:50	31%	8%	0.3%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TUS 18:33 → PHX 19:34AA 4126 · flown by Envoy	3h 57m Phoenix	PHX 23:31 → ORD 05:03 +1AA 3236	8h 30m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	8h 13m	98%	76%
American Details →	TUS 13:50 → PHX 14:55AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	2h 43m Phoenix	PHX 17:38 → ORD 23:30AA 435	7h 40m	100%	74%
American Details →	TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:31 → ORD 23:03AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	7h 45m	92%	74%
American Details →	TUS 17:43 → LAX 19:25AA 6372 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 23:25 → ORD 05:34 +1AA 899	9h 51m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	TUS 13:49 → ATL 20:45DL 937	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	8h 04m	93%	73%
United Details →	TUS 13:30 → DEN 16:39UA 2671	2h 31m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258	7h 19m	93%	73%
American Details →	TUS 13:41 → PHX 14:43AA 4935 · flown by SkyWest	3h 19m Phoenix	PHX 18:02 → ORD 23:25AA 695	7h 44m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TUS 15:29 → SFO 18:01UA 6006 · flown by SkyWest	46m San Francisco	SFO 18:47 → ORD 00:57 +1UA 1958	7h 28m	61%	45%
American Details →	TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424	6h 04m	56%	38%
American Details →	TUS 17:20 → PHX 18:23AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	46m Phoenix	PHX 19:09 → ORD 00:51 +1AA 3137	5h 31m	52%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON