tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:39 pm at Tucson); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:31, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 16:31 → SLC 19:29DL 3737 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 7h 13m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → TUS 15:29 → SFO 18:01UA 6006 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 7h 19m 95% 69%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:30 → DEN 16:39UA 2671 2h 51m Denver DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498 7h 45m 95% 65%
AmericanDetails → TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29AA 584 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:54 → PDX 00:55 +1AA 2620 8h 58m 87% 52%
SouthwestDetails → TUS 14:25 → PHX 15:15WN 4085 3h 40m Phoenix PHX 18:55 → PDX 21:30WN 1682 7h 05m 100% 51%
AmericanDetails → TUS 17:20 → PHX 18:23AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m Phoenix PHX 20:25 → PDX 23:08AA 561 5h 48m 86% 44%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 15:55 → SEA 18:59AS 641 3h 30m Seattle SEA 22:29 → PDX 23:30AS 1457 7h 35m 98% 43%
AmericanDetails → TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:29 → PDX 21:29AA 2298 8h 11m 84% 43%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUS 15:29 → SFO 18:01UA 6006 · flown by SkyWest 55m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:54UA 2262 5h 25m 63% 44%
AmericanDetails → TUS 17:43 → LAX 19:25AA 6372 · flown by SkyWest 49m Los Angeles LAX 20:14 → PDX 22:41AA 6424 · flown by SkyWest 4h 58m 61% 35%
AmericanDetails → TUS 18:26 → PHX 19:25AA 6207 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 20:25 → PDX 23:08AA 561 4h 42m 63% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON