Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 4683 TUS 07:07 → SFO 09:39 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest UA 6006 TUS 15:28 → SFO 18:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:07	SFO 09:39	21%	8%	0.3%	65%
UA 5583 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 13:08	SFO 15:40	26%	10%	0.6%	76%
UA 6006 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 15:28	SFO 18:00	28%	13%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON