tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:19 am at Traverse City); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3976 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → TVC 14:08 DTW 15:19 17% 4% 0.3% 73%
DL 3965 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → TVC 17:55 DTW 19:09 24% 6% 0.4% 70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → TVC 12:28 → ORD 12:59AA 4190 · flown by Envoy 2h 07m Chicago ORD 15:06 → DTW 17:41AA 3980 · flown by Envoy 5h 13m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:49 → ORD 15:14AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 2h 57m Chicago ORD 18:11 → DTW 20:46AA 3500 · flown by Envoy 5h 57m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 5575 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Chicago ORD 15:29 → DTW 17:49UA 2632 5h 34m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Minneapolis MSP 17:35 → DTW 20:21DL 1435 6h 45m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic 5h 25m 87% 78%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:55 → ORD 16:29UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Chicago ORD 20:07 → DTW 22:25UA 768 6h 30m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet 2h 15m Chicago ORD 15:00 → DTW 17:39UA 5867 · flown by SkyWest 5h 24m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → TVC 14:18 → ORD 14:45UA 2605 3h 20m Chicago ORD 18:05 → DTW 20:25UA 642 6h 07m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor 1h 48m Minneapolis MSP 21:02 → DTW 23:48DL 8805 5h 13m 74% 62%
DeltaDetails → TVC 17:19 → LGA 19:26DL 5638 · flown by Republic 1h 04m New York LGA 20:30 → DTW 22:51DL 1014 5h 32m 75% 51%
UnitedDetails → TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest 47m Chicago ORD 19:47 → DTW 22:19UA 2426 3h 50m 40% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON