tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:35 pm at Traverse City)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 3618 at 13:46, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 3618 United flown by Republic Flight history → TVC 13:46 EWR 16:00 24% 5% 1.2% 82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:55 → ORD 16:29UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 7h 44m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → TVC 16:47 → ORD 17:26AA 3772 · flown by Envoy 2h 43m Chicago ORD 20:09 → EWR 23:30AA 2549 6h 43m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306 1h 23m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 8h 16m 93% 71%
UnitedDetails → TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 6h 24m 86% 70%
DeltaDetails → TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 5h 30m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → TVC 14:18 → ORD 14:45UA 2605 3h 43m Chicago ORD 18:28 → EWR 21:58UA 534 7h 40m 94% 69%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:49 → ORD 15:15AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 2h 21m Chicago ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253 6h 11m 100% 67%
DeltaDetails → TVC 14:08 → DTW 15:19DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Detroit DTW 17:44 → EWR 19:30DL 2567 5h 22m 96% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:55 → ORD 16:29UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest 56m Chicago ORD 17:25 → EWR 20:48UA 1630 4h 53m 70% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON