Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:21 pm at Traverse City); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 20:14, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TVC 20:14 → ORD 20:33AA 6293 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	5h 08m	100%	88%
United Details →	TVC 15:55 → ORD 16:29UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	6h 46m	100%	76%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 18m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	7h 22m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Detroit	DTW 21:02 → MSP 21:54DL 8815	4h 59m	87%	65%
United Details →	TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	5h 41m	85%	62%
American Details →	TVC 19:53 → ORD 20:44AA 6380 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 22:38 → MSP 00:07 +1AA 2865	5h 14m	92%	57%
American Details →	TVC 17:07 → DFW 19:09AA 2870	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	7h 50m	82%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TVC 17:55 → DTW 19:09DL 3965 · flown by SkyWest	57m Detroit	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	4h 05m	69%	52%
United Details →	TVC 18:29 → ORD 19:00UA 5469 · flown by SkyWest	57m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	4h 12m	65%	49%
United Details →	TVC 16:44 → IAH 19:10UA 5238 · flown by SkyWest	50m Houston	IAH 20:00 → MSP 23:09UA 1872	7h 25m	57%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON