Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:12 am at Knoxville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1826 at 19:25, 31%.

Nonstops today


WN 1826 Southwest	TYS 19:25	BNA 19:32	31%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 1768 Southwest Flight history →	TYS 19:45	BNA 19:40	35%	4%	0.1%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TYS 13:00 → ORD 13:59AA 5014 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 17:11 → BNA 18:54AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	6h 54m	95%	79%
American Details →	TYS 18:32 → ORD 19:50AA 3783 · flown by Envoy	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 22:48 → BNA 00:28 +1AA 2151	6h 56m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:41 → DTW 13:30DL 5341 · flown by Endeavor	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316	5h 59m	95%	76%
United Details →	TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 21:43 → BNA 23:27UA 314	6h 42m	94%	76%
United Details →	TYS 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 17:58 → BNA 19:44UA 2784	6h 50m	98%	73%
United Details →	TYS 13:35 → IAD 15:20UA 4848 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 22m Dulles	IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264	6h 12m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	TYS 17:25 → DTW 19:14DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor	2h 21m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126	5h 50m	89%	70%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	4h 29m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont	51m Philadelphia	PHL 21:30 → BNA 22:46AA 2277	5h 09m	67%	39%
American Details →	TYS 17:18 → DFW 18:46AA 2550	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:41 → BNA 21:35AA 2979	5h 17m	65%	34%
American Details →	TYS 19:17 → DCA 21:00AA 5251 · flown by PSA	1h 00m Washington	DCA 22:00 → BNA 23:05AA 5513 · flown by PSA	4h 48m	63%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON