tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:19 pm at Knoxville); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 17:56, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 17:56 → DTW 19:36DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor 2h 09m Detroit DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715 5h 22m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590 6h 34m 99% 73%
SouthwestDetails → TYS 19:45 → BNA 19:40WN 1768 1h 58m Nashville BNA 21:38 → BWI 00:32 +1WN 499 4h 47m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Chicago ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675 6h 43m 88% 70%
DeltaDetails → TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 5h 32m 96% 66%
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:32 → ORD 19:50AA 3783 · flown by Envoy 1h 20m Chicago ORD 21:10 → BWI 00:00 +1AA 3222 5h 28m 80% 59%
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318 6h 07m 92% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 20:48 → BWI 22:24AA 2855 4h 17m 69% 41%
SouthwestDetails → TYS 19:45 → BNA 19:40WN 1768 50m Nashville BNA 20:30 → BWI 23:20WN 468 3h 35m 54% 40%
AmericanDetails → TYS 17:19 → DFW 18:46AA 2550 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43AA 2251 6h 24m 51% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON