Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Knoxville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 35–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OH 5436 PSA	TYS 18:18	DCA 20:10	35%	19%	1.3%	no record
AA 5251 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 19:17	DCA 21:00	40%	23%	1.3%	52%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 47m	96%	70%
American Details →	TYS 18:32 → ORD 19:50AA 3783 · flown by Envoy	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 21:04 → DCA 00:15 +1AA 514	5h 43m	80%	65%
Delta Details →	TYS 17:56 → DTW 19:36DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor	1h 48m Detroit	DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073	5h 03m	91%	63%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727	5h 55m	96%	58%
American Details →	TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	5h 46m	89%	51%
Delta Details →	TYS 17:17 → LGA 19:13DL 5455 · flown by Endeavor	2h 07m New York	LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58DL 1825	5h 41m	85%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832	3h 54m	66%	41%
United Details →	TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	5h 09m	52%	40%
American Details →	TYS 17:31 → DFW 19:04AA 2876	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	6h 28m	55%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON