Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 994 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 994 TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2550 TYS 17:19 → DFW 18:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 994 American Flight history →	TYS 05:37	DFW 07:06	10%	4%	0.8%	90%
OH 5149 PSA	TYS 08:27	DFW 09:57	16%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 5425 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 07:01	DFW 08:34	18%	8%	1.4%	77%
OH 5211 PSA	TYS 11:38	DFW 13:09	19%	9%	0.7%	no record
OH 5467 PSA	TYS 07:29	DFW 08:59	20%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 11:43	DFW 13:10	20%	9%	0.7%	79%
AA 2873 American Flight history →	TYS 13:54	DFW 15:24	25%	6%	2.1%	78%
OH 5309 PSA	TYS 20:06	DFW 21:36	26%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 2544 American Flight history →	TYS 14:58	DFW 16:32	28%	8%	2.1%	76%
AA 2876 American Flight history →	TYS 17:31	DFW 19:04	33%	8%	2.1%	54%
AA 644 American Flight history →	TYS 20:11	DFW 21:37	33%	8%	2.1%	37%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	TYS 17:19	DFW 18:48	33%	9%	2.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON