Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:06 pm at Knoxville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, G7 4592 at 16:30, with a 46% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G7 4592 GoJet	TYS 16:30	EWR 17:56	46%	11%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 17:56 → DTW 19:36DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor	2h 04m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	5h 29m	94%	74%
United Details →	TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	7h 08m	87%	73%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 53m	99%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	5h 54m	74%	62%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	59m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	4h 24m	75%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON