Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:42 pm at Knoxville); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, YV 6255 at 19:18, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YV 6255 Mesa	TYS 19:18	IAD 20:57	20%	10%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 17:56 → DTW 19:36DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor	2h 06m Detroit	DTW 21:42 → IAD 23:16DL 1902	5h 20m	94%	79%
United Details →	TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 22:10 → IAD 01:12 +1UA 1922	7h 27m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 36m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	5h 09m	95%	65%
United Details →	TYS 16:56 → DEN 18:20UA 720	53m Denver	DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412	7h 49m	77%	59%
American Details →	TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	6h 03m	92%	58%
American Details →	TYS 15:18 → DFW 16:18AA 2544	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:21 → IAD 23:08AA 2254	7h 50m	84%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest	47m Chicago	ORD 19:42 → IAD 22:34UA 304	4h 49m	48%	40%
American Details →	TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest	58m Charlotte	CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA	3h 58m	60%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON