tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:04 pm at Knoxville); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6299 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record TYS 12:10 IAH 13:32 14% 6% 0.0% 86%
UA 4046 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record TYS 15:25 IAH 16:50 22% 11% 0.0% 78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TYS 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Chicago ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954 7h 56m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665 7h 49m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor 2h 35m Detroit DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633 7h 25m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → TYS 13:00 → ORD 13:59AA 5014 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m Chicago ORD 17:17 → IAH 20:14AA 2708 8h 14m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → TYS 16:56 → DEN 18:20UA 720 2h 08m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 8h 03m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → TYS 13:35 → IAD 15:20UA 4848 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 39m Dulles IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 7h 50m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → TYS 13:54 → DFW 15:24AA 2873 2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:50 → IAH 19:11AA 4923 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 6h 52m 99% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TYS 17:25 → DTW 19:14DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor 1h 11m Detroit DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633 5h 59m 70% 52%
AmericanDetails → TYS 20:11 → DFW 21:37AA 644 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914 4h 47m 70% 43%
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Charlotte CLT 20:45 → IAH 22:27AA 1840 5h 20m 69% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON