Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:10 pm at Knoxville); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: G4 1432 at 19:20, 52%.

Nonstops today


G4 1432 Allegiant	TYS 19:20	MCO 20:58	52%	18%	1.0%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:33AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → MCO 00:17 +1AA 1879	6h 10m	88%	58%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	5h 53m	97%	56%
Southwest Details →	TYS 14:20 → DAL 15:35WN 2116	2h 10m Dallas	DAL 17:45 → MCO 21:30WN 965	7h 10m	97%	54%
Southwest Details →	TYS 19:45 → BNA 19:40WN 1768	1h 23m Nashville	BNA 21:03 → MCO 00:02 +1WN 642	4h 17m	86%	50%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:53DL 1735	5h 59m	98%	49%
American Details →	TYS 17:19 → DFW 18:46AA 2550	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336	7h 02m	85%	48%
American Details →	TYS 14:58 → DFW 16:30AA 2544	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:20AA 2186	7h 22m	83%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 20:19 → MCO 00:06 +1UA 617	6h 21m	70%	55%
American Details →	TYS 14:58 → DFW 16:30AA 2544	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:18 → MCO 21:10AA 2974	6h 12m	57%	29%
Southwest Details →	TYS 19:45 → BNA 19:40WN 1768	50m Nashville	BNA 20:30 → MCO 23:35WN 572	3h 50m	49%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON