Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:29 am at Knoxville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 1681 American	TYS 05:58	MIA 08:14	9%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2730 American Flight history →	TYS 06:00	MIA 08:12	12%	4%	0.2%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 50m	94%	82%
American Details →	TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:08 → MIA 13:04AA 868	7h 27m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:41 → DTW 13:30DL 5341 · flown by Endeavor	2h 29m Detroit	DTW 15:59 → MIA 19:18DL 866	7h 37m	95%	80%
American Details →	TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 13:12 → MIA 15:19AA 2428	6h 23m	98%	80%
American Details →	TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56AA 5620 · flown by PSA	1h 57m Philadelphia	PHL 09:53 → MIA 12:54AA 1985	6h 54m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	5h 34m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	TYS 07:30 → BWI 09:05WN 1077	2h 40m Baltimore	BWI 11:45 → MIA 14:20WN 4737	6h 50m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 05m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TYS 12:15 → DCA 13:59AA 5647 · flown by PSA	1h 00m Washington	DCA 14:59 → MIA 17:48AA 2664	5h 33m	74%	56%
American Details →	TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont	1h 16m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	6h 15m	75%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON