Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:04 am at Knoxville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


DL 5523 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 06:45	MSP 08:18	8%	6%	0.8%	92%
DL 4803 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 18:42	MSP 20:17	39%	16%	0.0%	61%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TYS 18:32 → ORD 19:50AA 3783 · flown by Envoy	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	6h 50m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	TYS 10:26 → ATL 11:26DL 1290	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	6h 40m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	TYS 06:40 → BNA 06:35WN 3388	1h 45m Nashville	BNA 08:20 → MSP 10:32WN 4822	4h 52m	100%	84%
American Details →	TYS 11:35 → ORD 12:38AA 6445 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 15:43 → MSP 17:32AA 4425 · flown by Republic	6h 57m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor	3h 12m Detroit	DTW 21:02 → MSP 21:54DL 8815	6h 55m	99%	83%
United Details →	TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MSP 10:36UA 3649 · flown by Republic	5h 51m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	7h 21m	100%	82%
United Details →	TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MSP 14:20UA 2749	5h 02m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TYS 17:45 → ORD 18:55UA 6000 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	4h 56m	72%	57%
Delta Details →	TYS 10:26 → ATL 11:26DL 1290	51m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	4h 24m	64%	48%
Delta Details →	TYS 17:25 → DTW 19:14DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor	52m Detroit	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	4h 35m	61%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON