Today: MQ 3547 at 18:56 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–37%.

Safest bet today MQ 3547 TYS 18:56 → ORD 19:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5869 TYS 18:02 → ORD 18:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3547 Envoy	TYS 18:56	ORD 19:49	21%	4%	0.4%	no record
MQ 3501 Envoy	TYS 17:08	ORD 18:01	21%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 3783 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TYS 18:32	ORD 19:50	21%	4%	0.4%	57%
UA 6000 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TYS 17:45	ORD 18:55	35%	11%	0.5%	77%worse than usual
OO 5869 SkyWest	TYS 18:02	ORD 18:57	37%	11%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON