Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today MQ 3668 VPS 19:12 → DFW 21:18 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2673 VPS 19:33 → DFW 21:50 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3668 Envoy	VPS 19:12	DFW 21:18	26%	4%	1.9%	no record
AA 2501 American Flight history →	VPS 15:33	DFW 17:50	33%	12%	1.0%	61%
AA 2673 American Flight history →	VPS 19:33	DFW 21:50	36%	12%	1.2%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON