Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3773 at 01:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 3773 IAD 01:31 → SFO 04:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 7 DCA 18:59 → SFO 21:56 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3773 United	IAD 01:31	SFO 04:27	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1095 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	SFO 09:12	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 367 United Flight history →	IAD 22:21	SFO 01:15	8%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 08:09	SFO 11:14	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1147 United Flight history →	IAD 08:35	SFO 11:19	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 369 United Flight history →	DCA 07:55	SFO 10:50	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 14:51	SFO 17:38	11%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 1434 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SFO 15:27	12%	4%	0.5%	79%
UA 2075 United Flight history →	IAD 20:00	SFO 22:51	12%	5%	0.6%	52%
WN 186 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:50	SJC 15:25	16%	3%	0.6%	51%
UA 504 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	SFO 21:50	16%	6%	0.6%	56%
UA 368 United Flight history →	DCA 17:59	SFO 20:55	20%	7%	0.6%	55%
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	22%	6%	0.6%	60%
WN 1101 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:50	SFO 17:30	22%	9%	0.6%	22%
AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	25%	8%	0.8%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439	8h 05m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436	1h 40m Denver	DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384	7h 55m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 20m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON