Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1868 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1868 IAD 09:10 → LAX 11:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 3283 DCA 18:01 → LAX 20:41 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1868 United Flight history →	IAD 09:10	LAX 11:39	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	10%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 2011 United	IAD 06:58	LAX 09:28	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	LAX 10:47	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 657 United	IAD 09:37	LAX 12:15	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 325 United Flight history →	IAD 07:00	LAX 09:26	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2318 United Flight history →	BWI 07:00	LAX 09:29	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 1591 United	BWI 07:52	LAX 10:43	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1974 Southwest	BWI 06:16	LAX 09:03	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1225 American Flight history →	IAD 06:20	LAX 08:54	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 19:23	LAX 21:52	14%	5%	0.6%	66%
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	14%	5%	0.6%	89%
WN 4322 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:10	LAX 09:35	14%	2%	0.6%	65%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	15%	5%	0.8%	75%
UA 1385 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	LAX 00:57	16%	4%	0.6%	84%
AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	16%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	19%	5%	0.6%	71%
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:50	LAX 16:15	22%	5%	0.6%	38%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	25%	4%	0.7%	71%
WN 200 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:10	ONT 22:25	26%	9%	0.5%	48%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	26%	9%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	97%	87%
American Details →	BWI 05:44 → ORD 07:12AA 4659 · flown by Republic	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 08:14 → SNA 10:33AA 2679	7h 49m	96%	86%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	51m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383	7h 29m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON