Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:19 pm at Fayetteville/Springdale/); 9 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: DL 1305 at 19:03 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–28%.

Safest bet today DL 1305 XNA 19:03 → ATL 22:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9E 5037 XNA 17:42 → ATL 20:39 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1305 Delta	XNA 19:03	ATL 22:05	16%	8%	0.5%	no record
DL 2771 Delta Flight history →	XNA 18:56	ATL 22:00	18%	9%	0.5%	63%
9E 5037 Endeavor	XNA 17:42	ATL 20:39	28%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON