Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:47 pm at Fayetteville/Springdale/); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 17:53, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 17:53 → ORD 19:45AA 3846 · flown by Envoy	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 21:04 → DCA 00:14 +1AA 514	5h 21m	81%	66%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:11 → MSP 19:09DL 4012 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	5h 45m	76%	62%
American Details →	XNA 15:57 → DFW 17:26AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	7h 02m	89%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 18:19 → CLT 21:30AA 5233 · flown by PSA	57m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	4h 34m	66%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON