Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:50 pm at Fayetteville/Springdale/); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: UA 5694 at 17:06, 40%.

Nonstops today


UA 5694 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:06	DEN 18:22	40%	15%	0.3%	74%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	XNA 17:11 → MSP 19:09DL 4012 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 22:15 → DEN 23:27DL 1705	7h 16m	97%	85%
United Details →	XNA 18:37 → ORD 20:40UA 5639 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 22:16 → DEN 00:08 +1UA 767	6h 31m	90%	77%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:56 → SLC 19:51DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → DEN 22:40DL 1667	5h 44m	85%	70%
United Details →	XNA 18:22 → ORD 20:17UA 4411 · flown by GoJet	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 21:50 → DEN 23:48UA 377	6h 26m	82%	69%
American Details →	XNA 17:53 → ORD 19:45AA 3846 · flown by Envoy	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1387	7h 24m	94%	68%
American Details →	XNA 17:47 → DFW 19:15AA 1804	3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:56 → DEN 00:09 +1AA 2852	7h 22m	96%	62%
American Details →	XNA 15:38 → CLT 18:10AA 5327 · flown by PSA	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 21:18 → DEN 23:09AA 2366	8h 31m	100%	57%
Delta Details →	XNA 18:56 → ATL 22:00DL 2771	59m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956	6h 27m	77%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 18:37 → ORD 20:40UA 5639 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:50 → DEN 23:48UA 377	6h 11m	67%	56%
Delta Details →	XNA 15:25 → ATL 18:21DL 4442 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	6h 18m	60%	37%
American Details →	XNA 17:47 → DFW 19:15AA 1804	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:29 → DEN 21:32AA 577	4h 45m	55%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON