Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:12 am at Fayetteville/Springdale/); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Today: MQ 3603 at 10:26 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet today MQ 3603 XNA 10:26 → DFW 11:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2150 XNA 17:50 → DFW 19:10 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3603 Envoy	XNA 10:26	DFW 11:53	21%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 15:57	DFW 17:26	24%	6%	0.6%	72%
AA 3843 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 20:22	DFW 21:49	25%	5%	0.7%	63%
AA 3847 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 14:47	DFW 16:16	25%	5%	0.6%	79%
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 14:38	DFW 16:00	26%	5%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
MQ 3605 Envoy	XNA 20:09	DFW 21:43	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5292 PSA	XNA 12:08	DFW 13:29	26%	13%	1.4%	no record
AA 3275 American Flight history →	XNA 11:59	DFW 13:20	33%	15%	0.9%	71%
AA 495 American	XNA 13:41	DFW 15:11	33%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 3274 American Flight history →	XNA 18:57	DFW 20:29	35%	17%	0.8%	52%
AA 1804 American Flight history →	XNA 17:47	DFW 19:15	37%	17%	0.8%	40%
AA 2150 American	XNA 17:50	DFW 19:10	38%	14%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON