Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:37 am at Fayetteville/Springdale/); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 5862 XNA 17:24 → IAH 19:24 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4782 XNA 12:04 → IAH 13:22 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 5862 SkyWest	XNA 17:24	IAH 19:24	18%	7%	0.4%	no record
C5 4256 CommuteAir	XNA 15:04	IAH 17:08	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 4782 SkyWest	XNA 12:04	IAH 13:22	26%	7%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON