Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:51 pm at Fayetteville/Springdale/); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: AA 6381 at 15:41, 36%.

Nonstops today


AA 6381 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 15:41	LAX 17:18	36%	11%	0.4%	87%worse than usual
OO 6330 SkyWest	XNA 17:23	LAX 18:57	37%	9%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	XNA 17:56 → SLC 19:51DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197	7h 46m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:11 → MSP 19:09DL 4012 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103	8h 42m	95%	74%
United Details →	XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Denver	DEN 21:20 → LAX 22:55UA 531	7h 49m	94%	68%
American Details →	XNA 17:53 → ORD 19:45AA 3846 · flown by Envoy	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209	8h 59m	92%	61%
United Details →	XNA 18:22 → ORD 20:17UA 4411 · flown by GoJet	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661	7h 47m	78%	61%
American Details →	XNA 15:38 → CLT 18:10AA 5327 · flown by PSA	2h 03m Charlotte	CLT 20:13 → LAX 22:18AA 2001	8h 40m	100%	59%
American Details →	XNA 14:56 → DFW 15:45AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → LAX 19:45AA 2766	6h 49m	96%	51%
Delta Details →	XNA 15:25 → ATL 18:21DL 4442 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → LAX 22:32DL 331	9h 07m	81%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 18:37 → ORD 20:40UA 5639 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661	7h 32m	38%	29%
American Details →	XNA 18:57 → DFW 20:29AA 3274	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → LAX 22:49AA 3136	5h 52m	53%	25%
American Details →	XNA 17:47 → DFW 19:15AA 1804	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:06 → LAX 21:31AA 2931	5h 44m	42%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON