Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3536 XNA 11:50 → MSP 13:48 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OO 3751 XNA 16:54 → MSP 18:53 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3536 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 11:50	MSP 13:48	13%	4%	0.2%	89%
OO 3761 SkyWest	XNA 11:43	MSP 13:41	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 4012 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:11	MSP 19:09	16%	4%	0.2%	71%
OO 3751 SkyWest	XNA 16:54	MSP 18:53	17%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON